June 6, 2025.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of +139,000 for the month of May, below the 6-month moving average of +157,000, but above the consensus expectation of +138,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at +4.2%.
- The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains slightly normal at +46 bps. Rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index is normal at 90. The long-term average of the MOVE Index is a reading of 94.
- The May release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) showed that the LEI fell slightly in April to -4.3 y/y. The LEI remains in contraction but has continued to trend more positive after bottoming-out in April of 2023.
- The U.S. ISM Services PMI for April was 49.9 (vs. consensus of 52.0). Activity in the sector contracted after expanding in the proceeding ten months. Ten industries reported growth in May, while ten reported contraction.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May was 48.5 (vs. consensus of 49.5), contracting for the third month after expanding in January and February. Seven industries reported growth in May, while seven reported contraction.
- According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were -3.56% y/y in April. Growth fell national with regions across the country reporting m/m losses. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.9%.
- The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports investors are 32.7% bullish and 25.9% bearish, for a spread of 6.8% (bearish). The current CNN Fear and Greed Index reading is 62 (“greed”), which is slightly down from 55 (“greed”) one month ago.
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