Key Market Indicators

September 11, 2025

1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of just +22,000 for the month of August, below the 6-month moving average of +64,000 and below the consensus expectation of +75,000. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.3%.
2. The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains slightly normal at +56 bps. Curve normalization year-to-date has been driven by short rates falling more than long rates. Rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index is quiet at 85.  The long-term average of the MOVE Index is a reading of 94.
3. The August release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) showed that the LEI rose slightly in July from -4.0% to -3.6% y/y. The LEI remains in contraction but has continued to trend more positive after bottoming-out in April of 2023.
4. The U.S. ISM Services PMI for August was 52.0 (vs. consensus of 51.0). Economic activity in the services sector grew in August for the third consecutive month. Twelve industries reported growth in August, while four reported contraction.
5. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August was 48.7 (vs. consensus of 49.0). Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August for the sixth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. Seven industries reported growth in August, while ten reported contraction.
6. According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were +0.3% y/y in July. Three out of four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month decreases; the West was the only region that recorded positive m/m growth. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.6%.
7. The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports investors are 32.7% bullish and 43.4% bearish, for a spread of -10.7% (bearish). The current CNN Fear and Greed Index reading is 53 (“neutral”), which is slightly down from 55 (“greed”) one month ago.

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