Jobs Report July 2025

July 03, 2025

1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of +147,000 for the month of June, above the 6-month moving average of +130,000 and above the consensus expectation of +106,000. The unemployment rate inched down to 4.1%.
2. The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains slightly normal at +46 bps. The 2YR/10YR yield curve has been range bound since early April. Curve normalization year-to-date has been driven by short rates falling more than long rates. Rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index is quiet at 91. The long-term average of the MOVE Index is a reading of 94.
3. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index was unchanged in May at -4.0% y/y. The LEI remains in contraction but has continued to trend more positive after bottoming-out in April of 2023.
4. The U.S. ISM Services PMI for June was 50.8 (vs. consensus of 50.5). Activity in the sector expanded after contracting last month for the first time since June of 2024. Ten industries reported growth in June, while six reported contraction.
5. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0 (vs. consensus of 48.8), contracting for the fourth month following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. Nine industries reported growth in June, while six reported contraction.
6. According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were +1.1% y/y in May. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month increases, most notably the West. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.8%.
7. The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports investors are 45.0% bullish and 33.1% bearish, for a spread of +11.9% (bullish). The current CNN Fear and Greed Index reading is 78 (“extreme greed”), which is up from 56 (“greed”) one month ago.

All data sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise indicated.
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