May 2, 2025
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of +177,000 for the month of April, below the 6-month moving average of +193,000, but above the consensus expectation of +138,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at +4.2%.
- The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains slightly normal at +48 bps. Curve normalization year-to-date has been driven by short rates falling more than long rates. Rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index is elevated at 101. The long-term average of the MOVE Index is a reading of 94.
- The April release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) showed that the LEI fell slightly in March to -3.6%. The LEI remains in contraction but has continued to trend more positive after bottoming-out in April of 2023.
- The U.S. ISM Services PMI for April was 51.6 (vs. consensus of 50.2). Activity in the sector expanded for the tenth straight month after contracting in April and June of 2024. Eleven industries reported growth in April, while nine reported contraction.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for April was 48.7 (vs. consensus of 47.9), contracting for the second month after expanding in January and February. Eleven industries reported growth in April, while six reported contraction.
- According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were -0.7% y/y in March. However, three out of four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month increases; the northeast was the only region that recorded negative m/m growth. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.9%.
- The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports investors are 20.9% bullish and 19.8% bearish, for a spread of 1.1% (neutral). The current CNN Fear and Greed Index reading is 38 (“fear”), which is slightly down from 23 (“extreme fear”) one month ago.