February 12, 2025
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of +143,000 for the month
of January, below the 6-month moving average of +178,000 and below the consensus
expectation of +175k. However, the unemployment rate moved back down to 4.0%, the
lowest level in the past eight months, and December’s nonfarm payroll number was revised
higher from an already strong figure of +256k to +307k. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains slightly normal at +29 bps. US Treasury yields climbed steadily to the start of the month before retracing to end
the month relatively flat to month/month. - The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index reading was -3.0% in December y/y, unchanged from November’s reading. The LEI remains in contraction but has continued to trend more positive after bottoming-out in April of 2023.
- The U.S. ISM Services PMI for January was 52.8 (vs. consensus of 54.0). Activity in the sector
expanded for the seventh straight month after contracting in April and June of 2024. Fourteen
industries reported growth in January, while three reported contraction. - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for January was 50.9 (vs. consensus of 50.0), expanding for
the first month after contracting in 25 of the preceding 26 months. Eight industries reported
growth in January, while eight reported contraction. - According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were -5.5% in December, the lowest monthly reading since April 2024. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.0%.
- The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports 33.3% bullish and 42.9% bearish, for a spread of -9.6% (bearish). The current CNN Fear and Greed index reading is 44 (“fear”), a slight improvement from the reading of 26 (“fear”) one month ago.
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